Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher James Paxton is not an effective swing-and-miss pitcher at this stage of his career. Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

MLB strikeout props for 4/29: Fade Dodgers' Paxton vs. D-backs

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 4/29/24

We closed last week with a 2-1 mark in strikeout props with two plus-money winners on Friday, and we're looking to stay hot to start the new week. Here are our three favorite K props for Monday's MLB slate.

Kenta Maeda over 4.5 Ks (+128 FanDuel)

Cardinals at Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET

We've already faded Kenta Maeda a few times this season with positive results, but we're going the other way with a solid matchup on deck. The St. Louis Cardinals rank 28th in MLB this year in wOBAcon, 28th in barrel rate and 26th in batting average. In 93 combined plate appearances against Maeda, current Cardinals hitters are batting just .179 with a 35.5 percent strikeout rate. For reference, the Seattle Mariners have the worst strikeout rate in the league this season at 28.3 percent. Maeda went over 4.5 strikeouts in both of his starts in which he gave up fewer than three runs, and this is a good matchup for another quality start.

Jake Irvin under 4.5 Ks (-135 DraftKings)

Nationals at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

Jake Irvin has gone over 4.5 Ks in three of his five starts this season, but this is a tough matchup for the Washington Nationals right-hander. In 41 combined plate appearances against Irvin, current Miami Marlins hitters have a minuscule 9.8 percent strikeout rate. Miami loves to chase pitches out of the zone, but that's not Irvin's strength. The 27-year-old ranks 109th out of 130 qualified pitchers in chase rate and 75th in chase contact rate.

James Paxton under 3.5 Ks (+125 DK)

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

James Paxton is not an effective swing-and-miss pitcher at this stage of his career. The veteran left-hander ranks in the fifth percentile in strikeout rate, the sixth percentile in chase rate and the 14th percentile in whiff rate. He's on pace to record career-low marks in all three statistical categories. Now he has to face an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has the lowest whiff rate and the third-lowest strikeout rate in MLB this season. The D-backs have the highest OPS and the third-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this year, so it will be tough for Paxton to reach four Ks.

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